Forecast Discussion for Willowsford Farm and vicinity from the NWS in Sterling, Virginia

000
FXUS61 KLWX 190049
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
849 PM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area late tonight. High pressure
will then build over the region Sunday through Tuesday.
A strong cold front will pass through the area later Wednesday
into Thursday and Canadian high pressure will build overhead
late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Aside from a few weak radar returns showing up in Highland
County, all showers have generally subsided for the evening. A
cold front will cross the area overnight with few-sct clouds
accompanying this feature. Areas of fog, locally dense, will be
possible again tonight mainly west of State Route 15. Tonight`s
low temperatures are forecast to be in the mid/upper 60s inside
I-95, with mid/upper 50s across mountain locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Ridge of high pressure will build at the sfc and aloft over the
region Sunday through Tuesday and support fair weather
conditions. With sfc high pressure off the New England coast, a
light easterly flow will develop and likely result in areas of
low clouds/fog each morning especially areas along and west of
the Blue Ridge Mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For Tuesday, high pressure will be pushing off to the east with an
approaching strong upper-level trough moving eastward towards the
Mid-Atlantic and NE regions. Expect most of Tuesday to be dry with
only a few isolated showers possible, mainly in the far western
regions as a weaker front could pass through during the day but
there more than likely will not be a lot of moisture with it.

As we head into Wednesday, a cold front associated with the upper
trough continues eastward into the CWA. Timing for this system is
still a bit in the air with some guidance having a more progressive
approach while others bring a gradual arrival even into Thursday
afternoon rather than earlier on Wednesday. Shear continues to look
very favorable for this system while instability remains in
question. Severe and hydro threat potential remains nonzero but
there is still a lot that would need to unfold for a potential
severe outbreak. Nonetheless, expect showers and thunderstorms to
form ahead of the impending cold front with some possibly becoming
severe if environmental conditions become favorable.


Behind the cold front, expect temperatures to trend down to more
fall like conditions. May even see the potential for some frost
across the Allegheny Front on Thursday night. Temperatures will
continue to trend cooler than previous days into the weekend as a
large upper level low may cross the area, fall is upon us!

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fair weather is expected today through Tue. Areas of fog are
possible tonight mainly west of State Route 15 which may affect
KCHO and KMRB.

VFR conditions expected on Tuesday with high pressure departing to
the east with an isolated instance of sub-VFR, mainly for MRB
terminal for a brief shower during the afternoon. Sub-VFR conditions
expected Wednesday with a strong cold front passage occurring
sometime between Wednesday and Thursday, timing is still uncertain.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly channeling is expected late tonight into Sunday
morning with SCA conditions likely over the Chesapeake Bay.
Winds relax Sun afternoon, but marginal SCA conditions could
persist over the southern waters early next week.

As high pressure exits on Tuesday with light gradient winds, no
marine hazards expected. Wednesday into Thursday, marine hazards are
expected sometime during the period as a cold front passes over the
waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 11 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ531>534-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/BRO
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...ADM
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/ADM
MARINE...LFR/ADM

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion